A 24-Hour Update: Market Reacts Sharply to Investigation News; Official FFB Prices Show Increase Despite Farmer Reports of Collapse
Published: May 28, 2026
By: Zeeshan Khan
Reading time: 15 minutes
Category: International Trade / Anti-Corruption / Commodities
Note: May 28, 2026 – This is an update to the May 27, 2026 article: Indonesia’s Palm Oil Export Crackdown: 10 Major Exporters Investigated for Under-Invoicing as Wilmar and Musim Mas Named – Full Implementation Delayed to January 2027
JAKARTA / SINGAPORE – May 28, 2026 – One day after Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa announced an investigation into 10 major palm oil exporters for under-invoicing, the financial markets have reacted sharply. Shares of Singapore-listed Wilmar International Limited plunged as much as 10.5% in early trading on May 28, marking their biggest intraday drop since 2020. The company has issued a formal statement to the Singapore Exchange stating it has not received official notification from Indonesian authorities that it is under investigation.
This 24-hour update covers the market reaction to the investigation announcement, Wilmar’s formal response, the Trade Minister’s clarification that Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) rules remain unchanged, official fresh fruit bunch (FFB) price data showing an increase (contrasting with farmer reports of collapse), and the continued absence of an official response from the Singaporean government.
The Essentials: Who, What, When, Where, Why, How (Last 24 Hours)
Who: Wilmar International Limited (Singapore-listed); Musim Mas Group; investors in palm oil companies; Indonesian Trade Minister Budi Santoso; Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto; the Indonesian Oil Palm Farmers’ Association (APKASINDO); smallholder farmers across Indonesia; the Singapore Exchange; and the Singaporean government.
What: Four major developments since May 27, 2026:
- Wilmar International shares plunged 10.5% in early trading on May 28, the biggest intraday drop since 2020, before paring some losses
- Wilmar issued a formal bourse filing stating it has not received official notification from Indonesian authorities that it is under investigation
- Trade Minister Budi Santoso confirmed that DMO rules, export taxes, and levies remain unchanged; only the export mechanism is changing
- Official FFB price data for May 27-June 2 shows an increase to Rp3,932.63/kg for nine-year-old oil palm trees in Riau Province
When:
- May 28, 2026 (early trading) – Wilmar shares plunge 10.5%
- May 28, 2026 – Wilmar files statement with Singapore Exchange
- May 27-28, 2026 – Official FFB price determination for Riau Province
- May 26, 2026 – Finance Minister announces investigation (previously reported)
- June 1, 2026 – Phase 1 transition period begins
- January 1, 2027 – Full mandatory implementation begins
Where: The stock price movement occurred on the Singapore Exchange, where Wilmar International is listed. The investigation and policy implementation are centered in Indonesia. The official FFB price data comes from the Riau Province pricing committee.
Why (Immediate Cause): The share price plunge follows the May 26 announcement that Wilmar and Musim Mas are among 10 exporters under formal investigation for suspected under-invoicing and transfer-pricing practices. Investors are reacting to the uncertainty created by the investigation and the broader policy shift.
How (Mechanism): The Singapore Exchange filing allows Wilmar to make a formal statement to the market. The Trade Minister’s clarification confirms that the new DSI export mechanism operates alongside existing DMO requirements, export taxes, and levies, which remain in effect.
Specific Updates in the Last 24 Hours (May 27–28, 2026)
1. Wilmar Shares Plunge 10.5% in Early Trading (May 28)
The financial markets have delivered a sharp verdict on the investigation announcement. Shares of Singapore-listed Wilmar International plunged as much as 10.5% in early trading on May 28, marking their biggest intraday drop since 2020.
Trading Details: The stock opened at S$3.15 before paring some losses later in the trading session. Trading volume was extremely high, at nine times the 20-day average, indicating significant investor concern and active selling.
Market Context: Analysts noted that President Prabowo’s announcement has rattled investors and created significant uncertainty in the palm oil market. State-linked crude palm oil tenders, which are a benchmark for domestic prices, have reportedly ground to a halt since the announcement.
Investor Concerns: The sharp sell-off reflects investor fears about the potential financial impact of the investigation, possible penalties, and the broader implications of the government’s move to centralize palm oil exports through DSI (PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia).
2. Wilmar Issues Formal Response: No Official Notice Received (May 28)
In a significant development, Wilmar International has broken its silence and issued a formal statement to the Singapore Exchange.
Bourse Filing: In a filing to the Singapore Exchange on May 28, 2026, Wilmar stated that it has not received official notification from Indonesian authorities that it is under investigation.
Cooperation with Authorities: The company said it is “working with the relevant authorities to understand their concerns” and that it would update the market if and when it receives official notification.
Musim Mas: Musim Mas, the other named company (which is not publicly traded), has not immediately responded to requests for comment as of May 28, 2026.
Connection to Previous Article: The May 27 article reported that neither Wilmar nor Musim Mas had responded to requests for comment as of May 27. The May 28 bourse filing represents the first formal response from either company.
3. Trade Minister Confirms DMO Rules Unchanged (May 27-28)
Indonesian Trade Minister Budi Santoso has provided important clarification about the interaction between the new DSI export system and existing regulations.
DMO Unchanged: The Trade Minister confirmed that the new policy of routing exports through DSI does not change the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) for crude palm oil exporters. The DMO rules, along with export taxes and levies, will continue to apply.
Mechanism, Not New Rules: The minister emphasized that the change is only in the mechanism of who executes the export (moving from private exporters to DSI), not the underlying regulations or obligations for exporters.
Export Licenses: He also clarified that even when exports are fully handled by DSI, the authority to issue export permits remains with the Ministry of Trade, not DSI.
What This Means for Exporters: Exporters must still comply with DMO requirements, pay applicable export taxes and levies, and follow all other existing regulations. Only the execution mechanism is changing.
4. Official FFB Prices Show Increase (May 27-June 2)
The May 27 article reported that fresh fruit bunch (FFB) prices had collapsed to 1,500-2,500 rupiah per kilogram, based on statements from the Indonesian Oil Palm Farmers’ Association (APKASINDO). However, official pricing data from the last 24 hours tells a different story.
Official Price Determination: According to official price determination letters from the Riau Province pricing committee, the benchmark FFB price for the period of May 27–June 2, 2026, has increased.
Specific Pricing: The price for nine-year-old oil palm trees (a common benchmark) was set at Rp3,932.63 per kilogram. This is significantly higher than the 1,500-2,500 rupiah range reported by APKASINDO.
Comparison of Price Reports:
| Source | Reported FFB Price (per kg) | Period |
|---|---|---|
| APKASINDO (farmer association) | 1,500-2,500 rupiah (collapse) | After policy announcement |
| Riau Province official pricing | Rp3,932.63 | May 27 – June 2, 2026 |
Possible Explanations for Discrepancy: The discrepancy could be due to several factors. First, there may be a time lag between the policy announcement and official price adjustments. Second, regional variations in FFB prices are common across Indonesia’s palm oil-producing regions. Third, there may be a difference between the official benchmark price and the actual prices paid by middlemen to individual farmers (plasma versus independent smallholders). Fourth, the price paid to independent smallholders may differ from the official benchmark price that applies to larger producers.
What This Means: While APKASINDO’s reports of farmer hardship are significant, the official price determination for Riau Province shows a higher benchmark price. The situation may vary significantly by region and by type of farmer.
5. State-Linked CPO Tenders Ground to a Halt
The uncertainty created by the policy announcement has had immediate effects on the domestic palm oil market.
Tender Status: State-linked crude palm oil tenders, which are a benchmark for domestic prices, have reportedly ground to a halt since President Prabowo’s announcement of the centralized export system.
Market Uncertainty: The halt in tenders reflects the uncertainty about how the new system will operate and what it will mean for domestic pricing mechanisms.
Connection to Investor Reaction: The halting of tenders is consistent with the broader market uncertainty reflected in Wilmar’s share price decline.
6. Singapore’s Official Response Still Not Reported
As of May 28, 2026, Singapore’s official response to the under-invoicing allegations and the new export policy remains unreported.
Current Status: Singapore-based companies Wilmar and Musim Mas have been named in the investigation. Wilmar has responded through a bourse filing. Musim Mas has not responded. However, the Singaporean government has not issued a formal statement.
What to Watch: Any statement from Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry or other relevant authorities would be a significant development, potentially affecting diplomatic and trade relations between the two countries.
Comparison: Before (May 27 Article) and After (May 28 – Current)
| Issue | As of May 27, 2026 (Article) | As of May 28, 2026 (Current) |
|---|---|---|
| Wilmar share price | Not reported | PLUNGED 10.5% – biggest intraday drop since 2020 |
| Wilmar official response | No response as of May 27 | ISSUED STATEMENT – No official notice received |
| Musim Mas response | No response as of May 27 | NO RESPONSE – unchanged |
| Trading volume context | Not reported | NINE TIMES 20-DAY AVERAGE |
| State-linked CPO tenders | Not reported | GROUND TO A HALT – market uncertainty |
| Trade Minister clarification | Not reported | DMO RULES UNCHANGED – only mechanism changing |
| Export license authority | Not specified | REMAINS WITH MINISTRY OF TRADE – not DSI |
| Official FFB price (Riau) | Not reported | Rp3,932.63/kg (May 27-June 2) |
| APKASINDO FFB price report | 1,500-2,500 rupiah (collapse) | CONFLICTING DATA – official price higher |
| Singapore government response | NOT YET REPORTED | NOT YET REPORTED – unchanged |
Revised Timeline of Key Events (May 21 – May 28, 2026)
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Centralized export system announced |
| May 23, 2026 | First article published – revenue leakage estimate |
| May 24-25, 2026 | DSDI formally established; Luke Thomas Mahony appointed |
| May 25, 2026 | Trade Minister Regulation Number 25 of 2026 published |
| May 25, 2026 | Coordinating Minister clarifies September 1 is voluntary transition |
| May 26, 2026 | Finance Minister announces investigation of 10 exporters, names Wilmar and Musim Mas |
| May 26, 2026 | FFB price collapse reported by APKASINDO |
| May 26, 2026 | Coordinating Minister states “no country excluded” |
| May 26, 2026 | Deputy Minister meets industry stakeholders; reference prices agreed |
| May 27, 2026 | Official FFB price determined for Riau Province (Rp3,932.63/kg for May 27-June 2) |
| May 28, 2026 (early trading) | Wilmar shares plunge 10.5% |
| May 28, 2026 | Wilmar issues bourse filing – no official notice received |
| May 28, 2026 | Trade Minister confirms DMO rules unchanged |
| June 1, 2026 | Phase 1 transition period begins |
| September 1, 2026 | Voluntary mixed transition period begins |
| January 1, 2027 | Full mandatory implementation begins |
Analysis of Conflicting FFB Price Data
The discrepancy between APKASINDO’s reported price collapse and the official Riau Province price determination requires careful analysis.
APKASINDO’s Report (1,500-2,500 rupiah): This represents a 50-60% drop from the pre-announcement price of approximately 3,800 rupiah. The association chairman reported that fruit is being left to rot in the fields because collectors have stopped purchasing.
Official Riau Price (Rp3,932.63/kg): This official determination for May 27-June 2 is actually higher than the pre-announcement price of approximately 3,800 rupiah. It is not a collapse but an increase.
Possible Explanations:
- Timing Lag: The official price may not yet reflect the full impact of the policy announcement, which occurred only days ago. Official price determinations may operate on a lagging schedule.
- Regional Variation: Riau Province may have different price dynamics than other palm oil-producing regions in Indonesia. The APKASINDO report may reflect conditions in other provinces.
- Producer Category: The official benchmark price may apply primarily to larger producers and plasma farmers (those affiliated with major companies). Independent smallholders may receive different prices from middlemen.
- Data Collection Methods: APKASINDO’s data may come from direct farmer reports of actual transactions. The official price determination may be based on different methodology.
Conclusion on FFB Prices: The situation is complex and may vary significantly by region and farmer category. Both data points should be considered, and further reporting from multiple regions is needed.
What Has Not Changed (Since May 27 Article)
The following elements of the policy and situation remain unchanged from the May 27 article:
| Element | Status |
|---|---|
| Investigation of 10 exporters | ANNOUNCED (May 26, 2026) |
| Wilmar and Musim Mas named | CONFIRMED |
| Under-invoicing gap | CONFIRMED – approximately 50% |
| “No country excluded” | CONFIRMED – Coordinating Minister statement |
| Government reference prices for farmers | AGREED (May 26) – implementation pending |
| Phase 1 start date | June 1, 2026 (confirmed) |
| Full mandatory implementation | January 1, 2027 (clarified) |
| No additional fees in Phase 1 | CONFIRMED |
| Potential fees in Phase 2 | NOT SPECIFIED |
| Analyst assessment | Limited near-term impact |
| Singapore government response | NOT YET REPORTED |
Why This Matters (Updated for May 28)
The market reaction, Wilmar’s formal response, the Trade Minister’s clarifications, and the conflicting FFB price data are significant developments that change the landscape described in the May 27 article.
For investors and the palm oil market: Wilmar’s 10.5% share price plunge – the biggest intraday drop since 2020 – demonstrates that the market views the investigation and policy shift as material risks. Trading volume at nine times the 20-day average indicates significant investor concern. The halting of state-linked CPO tenders adds to the uncertainty.
For Wilmar International: The company has now formally responded, stating it has not received official notification. This positions Wilmar as waiting for formal process rather than acknowledging wrongdoing. The company’s cooperation with authorities may mitigate potential penalties.
For exporters and compliance: The Trade Minister’s clarification that DMO rules, export taxes, and levies remain unchanged provides important certainty. Exporters must still comply with all existing obligations. Only the execution mechanism is changing.
For smallholder farmers: The conflicting price data is significant. APKASINDO reports severe hardship and fruit rotting in fields. Official Riau Province data shows a price increase to Rp3,932.63 per kilogram. The reality likely varies significantly by region and farmer category. Further reporting is needed.
For Singapore: The Singaporean government has still not issued an official response. Wilmar has responded through a bourse filing, but the government remains silent. This may change as the situation develops.
For global buyers: The Trade Minister’s clarification confirms that the new DSI mechanism does not alter export taxes, levies, or DMO requirements. The cost structure for buyers may remain similar, at least through Phase 1.
Current Status Summary (As of May 28, 2026, 14:00 EST)
| Element | Status |
|---|---|
| Wilmar share price | PLUNGED 10.5% in early May 28 trading |
| Wilmar official response | ISSUED – no official notice received; cooperating with authorities |
| Musim Mas response | NO RESPONSE as of May 28 |
| Trading volume | NINE TIMES 20-DAY AVERAGE |
| State-linked CPO tenders | GROUND TO A HALT – market uncertainty |
| Trade Minister DMO clarification | CONFIRMED – DMO rules unchanged |
| Export license authority | REMAINS WITH MINISTRY OF TRADE – not DSI |
| Official FFB price (Riau) | Rp3,932.63/kg (May 27-June 2) |
| APKASINDO FFB price report | 1,500-2,500 rupiah (conflicting data) |
| Investigation of 10 exporters | ANNOUNCED – unchanged |
| Under-invoicing gap | CONFIRMED – approximately 50% – unchanged |
| Full mandatory implementation | January 1, 2027 – unchanged |
| Singapore government response | NOT YET REPORTED – unchanged |
What to Watch For (Updated for May 28)
| Event | Expected Timing | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Wilmar share price close | End of May 28 trading | Will show whether losses are sustained or pared |
| Musim Mas official response | Unknown | Could provide additional clarity |
| Singapore government response | Unknown | Could affect diplomatic and trade relations |
| Phase 1 implementation begins | June 1, 2026 | Documentation requirements take effect |
| Investigation outcomes | Unknown | Potential penalties for Wilmar, Musim Mas, and others |
| FFB price reporting from other regions | Coming days | Will clarify whether Riau price is representative |
| Reference price implementation | Coming days | Could provide relief to smallholder farmers |
| Phase 2 fee announcement | Before January 1, 2027 | Could significantly affect exporter margins |
| Full mandatory implementation | January 1, 2027 | DSI takes full control |
Sources
- Singapore Exchange (May 28, 2026) – Wilmar International Limited bourse filing: statement that company has not received official notification from Indonesian authorities; cooperation with authorities to understand concerns
- Bloomberg/Reuters market reports (May 28, 2026) – Wilmar shares plunge 10.5% in early trading, biggest intraday drop since 2020; trading volume nine times 20-day average
- Indonesian Trade Minister Budi Santoso (May 27-28, 2026) – Clarification that DMO rules, export taxes, and levies remain unchanged; only export mechanism is changing; export permits remain with Ministry of Trade
- Riau Province pricing committee (May 27, 2026) – Official price determination for fresh fruit bunches for period May 27-June 2, 2026: nine-year-old oil palm trees priced at Rp3,932.63 per kilogram
- APKASINDO (May 26, 2026) – Statement on FFB price collapse to 1,500-2,500 rupiah per kilogram; farmers leaving fruit to rot in fields
- Analyst reports (May 27-28, 2026) – State-linked CPO tenders ground to a halt; market uncertainty; investors rattled by President Prabowo’s announcement
- Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa (May 26, 2026) – Announcement of investigation of 10 major palm oil exporters; naming of Wilmar and Musim Mas; confirmation of 50% under-invoicing gap
- Previous article: Indonesia’s Palm Oil Export Crackdown: 10 Major Exporters Investigated for Under-Invoicing as Wilmar and Musim Mas Named – Full Implementation Delayed to January 2027 (The 5 Ws, May 27, 2026) – Baseline information on investigation announcement, under-invoicing gap, implementation timeline
The 5 W's 
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