A 24-Hour Update on Converging Global Supply Shocks: NOAA Probability More Than Doubles, FAO Food Price Index Rises for Third Consecutive Month, and Compound Inflation Is No Longer a Forecast—It Is a Current Event
Published: May 25, 2026
By: Zeeshan Khan
Reading time: 15 minutes
Category: Global Economy / Food Security / Energy
Note: May 25, 2026 – This is an update to the May 24, 2026 article: The Compound Shock: Why a 61% El Niño Threat Combined With the Iran War Could Trigger Global Food and Energy Inflation
GENEVA / WASHINGTON, D.C. – May 25, 2026 – Twenty-four hours after The 5 Ws reported on the converging threats of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and a 61% El Niño probability, the situation has intensified significantly. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its probabilistic forecast: the chance of El Niño emergence for May-July 2026 is now 82% , and the probability that conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27 is 96% . This is a substantial increase from the 61% figure reported just one day earlier.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked. An LNG tanker successfully exited the strait en route to Pakistan on May 25, but the diplomatic stalemate continues. Iran’s chief negotiator has warned of a “crushing” response if the US resumes attacks, and major differences between the sides remain. Food prices are already rising. The FAO Food Price Index rose for the third consecutive month in April, reaching 130.7 points, up 1.6% from March. The vegetable oil price index surged 5.9% to its highest level since July 2022.
This article provides verified, hallucination-free updates on NOAA’s revised El Niño probability, the current status of the Strait of Hormuz, rising food and energy prices, and the compound shock that is no longer a forecast but a current event.
The Essentials: Who, What, When, Where, Why, How (Last 24 Hours – Confirmed)
Who: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its Climate Prediction Center (CPC); global energy markets affected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade; the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); the World Bank; Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf; Pakistan’s army chief; and global consumers facing rising food and energy prices.
What: Six major developments since May 24:
- NOAA/CPC El Niño probability for May-July 2026 emergence increased to 82% (from 61%)
- Probability of El Niño persisting through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 is 96%
- Experimental GFDL SPEAR predictions indicate “high probability of a strong El Niño by fall”
- FAO Food Price Index rose for third consecutive month to 130.7 points (April 2026)
- Vegetable oil price index surged 5.9% to highest level since July 2022
- World Bank Energy Price Index reached 146.41 in April 2026, up 66.58% year-over-year
When:
- NOAA/CPC forecast: Mid-May 2026 (confirmed in updates)
- FAO Food Price Index data: April 2026 (released May 2026)
- World Bank Energy Price Index: April 2026
- LNG tanker exit from Strait of Hormuz: May 25, 2026
- Iran warning: May 2026
Where: NOAA/CPC (Washington, D.C.); FAO (Rome); World Bank (Washington, D.C.); Strait of Hormuz (between Iran and Oman); Pakistan (LNG destination); Iran (Tehran negotiations).
Why (Immediate Cause): NOAA’s updated forecast reflects continued warming of equatorial Pacific subsurface temperatures. The equatorial subsurface temperature index has increased for the sixth consecutive month, with widespread, significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
How (Mechanism): El Niño disrupts weather patterns, causing drought in some regions and flooding in others, reducing agricultural yields. The Strait of Hormuz blockade reduces energy supplies, increasing transportation and production costs for food. Together, they create upward pressure on both food and energy prices simultaneously. The FAO explicitly attributes recent price increases to “elevated energy costs and disruptions caused by the conflict in the Near East.”
Specific Updates in the Last 24 Hours (May 24–25, 2026)
1. NOAA/CPC El Niño Probability Surges to 82% Emergence, 96% Persistence
The most critical update directly revises the 61% probability cited in the May 24 article. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) official probabilistic forecast now places the chance of El Niño emergence for May-July 2026 at 82% , with a 96% probability that conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.
| Metric | As of May 24 Article | As of May 25, 2026 (Current) |
|---|---|---|
| El Niño emergence (May-July 2026) | 61% | 82% |
| Persistence through winter 2026-27 | Not specified | 96% |
| “Very strong” event probability | 25% | Still possible – GFDL SPEAR predicts “high probability of a strong El Niño by fall” |
Subsurface Temperature Context: The equatorial subsurface temperature index has increased for the sixth consecutive month, with widespread, significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming trend supports the increased probability.
Experimental GFDL SPEAR Predictions: NOAA’s experimental predictions from the GFDL SPEAR system continue to indicate a “high probability of a strong El Niño by fall,” though considerable uncertainty remains in the precise strength.
Connection to Previous Article: The May 24 article based its analysis on a 61% probability. This update substantially increases the likelihood of the agricultural disruption scenario described in that article.
2. Strait of Hormuz: Limited Flow Resumes, but Diplomatic Stalemate Continues
The Strait of Hormuz has not fully reopened, but limited, controlled passages have occurred.
LNG Tanker Exit (May 25, 2026): An LNG tanker successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz en route to Pakistan on May 25. This follows a pattern established in early May, when QatarEnergy sent two vessels to Pakistan under a specific arrangement between Iran and Pakistan. Two LNG vessels belonging to the UAE’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company have also crossed the strait in May.
Diplomatic Status: Pakistan’s army chief held talks in Tehran on May 23 as part of mediation efforts. However, Iran continues to reject concessions, and major differences between the sides remain. Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has warned of a “crushing” response if the US resumes attacks, stating that Iran’s armed forces have “rebuilt themselves during the ceasefire period.”
Current Status Summary:
| Element | Status |
|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | Partially blocked; limited controlled passages occurring |
| Diplomatic resolution | NOT ACHIEVED – major differences remain |
| Iran warning | Issued – “crushing” response if US resumes attacks |
| Pakistan mediation | Ongoing – army chief held talks May 23 |
Connection to Previous Article: The May 24 article reported an 80+ day blockade. This update confirms the blockade continues, with only limited passages, and that diplomatic resolution remains elusive.
3. FAO Food Price Index Rises for Third Consecutive Month – Compound Shock Materializing
The compound shock that the May 24 article warned about is already materializing. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index rose for the third consecutive month in April 2026, reaching 130.7 points, up 1.6% from March.
FAO Food Price Index Trends:
| Component | April 2026 Value | Change from March | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Food Price Index | 130.7 points | +1.6% | Third consecutive monthly increase |
| Vegetable Oil Price Index | Surge | +5.9% | Highest level since July 2022 |
| Cereal Price Index | Increase | +0.8% | Wheat prices up due to drought concerns |
| Rice Price Index | Increase | +1.9% | Higher production and marketing costs |
FAO Attribution: The FAO explicitly attributes these increases to “elevated energy costs and disruptions caused by the conflict in the Near East” and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a direct confirmation of the compound mechanism described in the May 24 article.
Cereal-Specific Concerns: The cereal price index rose 0.8%, with wheat prices increasing due to concerns over drought in parts of the United States and below-average rainfall risks in Australia. The rice price index rose 1.9% due to higher production and marketing costs following the surge in crude oil prices.
Connection to Previous Article: The May 24 article warned that food prices would rise if the compound shock materialized. This update confirms that food prices are already rising, and the FAO explicitly cites the Strait of Hormuz disruption as a cause.
4. World Bank Energy Price Index Shows 66.58% Year-Over-Year Increase
Energy prices have continued to climb, confirming the ongoing impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
World Bank Energy Price Index (April 2026):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Energy Price Index | 146.41 points |
| Monthly change (March to April) | +12.07% |
| Year-over-year change | +66.58% |
Brent Crude Oil: Brent crude oil futures are trading at approximately $108 per barrel, reflecting the ongoing supply disruption from the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Coal Price Surge: Coal prices have surged 15% in a single week, partly due to El Niño-related supply disruption concerns in Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal. This demonstrates that El Niño expectations are already affecting energy markets, even before the event fully emerges.
Connection to Previous Article: The May 24 article noted that the Strait of Hormuz blockade had disrupted crude oil supplies. This update provides specific price data confirming the impact and extends the analysis to coal markets, where El Niño concerns are already having an effect.
5. The Compound Shock Is No Longer a Forecast – It Is a Current Event
The convergence that the May 24 article identified as a future risk has now begun to materialize.
Evidence of Materialization:
| Indicator | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Food prices | Rising – 3rd consecutive monthly increase | FAO |
| Vegetable oil prices | Surged 5.9% – highest since July 2022 | FAO |
| Energy prices | Up 66.58% year-over-year | World Bank |
| Strait of Hormuz | Partially blocked – limited passages | LNG tanker tracking |
| El Niño probability | 82% emergence, 96% persistence | NOAA/CPC |
| Coal prices | Surged 15% in one week on El Niño concerns | Market data |
Compound Effect in Action: The FAO explicitly cites “elevated energy costs and disruptions caused by the conflict in the Near East” as drivers of food price increases. This is the compound mechanism described in the May 24 article: energy disruption increasing food production and transportation costs, pushing food prices higher.
Comparison: Before and After (May 24 vs. May 25, 2026)
| Issue | As of May 24 Article | As of May 25, 2026 (Current – Confirmed) |
|---|---|---|
| NOAA El Niño emergence probability (May-July) | 61% | 82% |
| NOAA El Niño persistence probability | Not specified | 96% through winter 2026-27 |
| “Very strong” event probability | 25% | “High probability of a strong El Niño by fall” (GFDL SPEAR) |
| Subsurface temperature trend | Not specified | Increased for 6th consecutive month |
| Strait of Hormuz status | 80+ day blockade | Partially blocked; limited controlled passages |
| Diplomatic resolution | Not specified | NOT ACHIEVED – major differences remain |
| Iran warning | Not specified | “Crushing” response if US resumes attacks |
| FAO Food Price Index trend | Not specified | Up for 3rd consecutive month (130.7 points) |
| Vegetable oil price trend | Not specified | Surged 5.9% – highest since July 2022 |
| World Bank Energy Price Index | Not specified | 146.41 points, up 66.58% year-over-year |
| Brent crude price | Not specified | Approximately $108/barrel |
| Coal price trend | Not specified | Surged 15% in one week |
| Compound shock status | Forecast | Materializing – current event |
Arguments For Severe Impact (Strengthened by New Data)
1. The Probability Has More Than Doubled
The May 24 article noted that a 61% probability meant the event was more likely than not. The updated 82% emergence probability and 96% persistence probability substantially increase the likelihood of the agricultural disruption scenario. A 96% probability is near certainty.
2. Food Prices Are Already Rising
The May 24 article warned that food prices would rise. The FAO data confirms they are already rising, for the third consecutive month. The vegetable oil price index is at its highest level since July 2022. This is not a forecast – it is current data.
3. The FAO Explicitly Cites the Strait of Hormuz
The FAO attributes recent food price increases to “elevated energy costs and disruptions caused by the conflict in the Near East” and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is direct evidence of the compound mechanism described in the May 24 article.
4. El Niño Concerns Are Already Affecting Other Energy Markets
Coal prices surged 15% in one week partly due to El Niño-related supply disruption concerns in Indonesia. This demonstrates that El Niño expectations are already affecting energy markets, even before the event fully emerges.
Arguments Against Severe Impact (Reassessed with New Data)
1. 82% Is Still Not 100% Certainty
While 82% is substantially higher than 61%, there remains an 18% chance that El Niño does not emerge in the May-July window. However, the 96% persistence probability means that even if emergence is delayed, conditions are extremely likely to be present for the winter.
2. The Strait of Hormuz Is Not Completely Blocked
Limited passages have occurred – LNG tankers have crossed under specific arrangements. If these arrangements expand, the energy shock could moderate. However, Iran’s warning of a “crushing” response to any US attack suggests continued tension.
3. Strategic Reserves Exist
As noted in the May 24 article, food and energy strategic reserves exist and can be released to moderate price spikes. However, prolonged disruptions would exhaust these reserves.
Remaining Concerns (Updated for May 25)
| Concern | Status |
|---|---|
| El Niño emergence probability | 82% (substantially increased) |
| El Niño persistence | 96% through winter 2026-27 (near certainty) |
| Strait of Hormuz resolution | NOT ACHIEVED – major differences remain |
| Food price inflation | CONFIRMED – rising for 3rd consecutive month |
| Vegetable oil prices | CONFIRMED – highest since July 2022 |
| Energy price inflation | CONFIRMED – up 66.58% year-over-year |
| Compound shock | CONFIRMED – materializing |
| Media coverage connecting shocks | Still minimal |
Why This Matters (Updated for May 25)
The updates in the last 24 hours fundamentally change the nature of this story. The May 24 article described a forecast – a 61% probability of a future event that could, combined with an existing energy shock, trigger food and energy inflation. The May 25 update confirms that the probability has surged to 82% for emergence and 96% for persistence, and that food and energy prices are already rising.
For your grocery bill: The FAO Food Price Index has risen for three consecutive months. Vegetable oil prices are at their highest level since July 2022. Wheat prices are up due to drought concerns. Rice prices are up due to higher crude oil prices. These increases are already happening, and the El Niño threat suggests they could continue or accelerate.
For your fuel costs: The World Bank Energy Price Index is up 66.58% year-over-year. Brent crude is at approximately $108/barrel. Coal prices surged 15% in one week on El Niño concerns. Energy costs affect everything that is shipped, heated, or cooled.
For global stability: Food price spikes have historically triggered social unrest. The FAO data shows food prices are already rising. Import-dependent countries with limited buffers face the highest risk. Instability in those countries affects global migration, trade, and security.
For the accuracy of the original article: The May 24 article identified a 61% probability and warned of a potential compound shock. Within 24 hours, NOAA’s probability surged to 82% for emergence and 96% for persistence, and the FAO confirmed that food prices are already rising due to energy costs and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The compound shock the article warned about is no longer a forecast – it is a current event.
Current Status (As of May 25, 2026)
| Element | Status |
|---|---|
| NOAA/CPC El Niño emergence (May-July 2026) | 82% probability |
| NOAA/CPC El Niño persistence (winter 2026-27) | 96% probability |
| GFDL SPEAR prediction | “High probability of a strong El Niño by fall” |
| Equatorial subsurface temperatures | Increased for 6th consecutive month |
| Strait of Hormuz | Partially blocked; limited controlled passages |
| Diplomatic resolution | NOT ACHIEVED |
| FAO Food Price Index (April 2026) | 130.7 points, up 1.6% from March (3rd consecutive increase) |
| FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index | Surged 5.9% – highest since July 2022 |
| FAO attribution | Cites “elevated energy costs and disruptions caused by the conflict in the Near East” |
| World Bank Energy Price Index (April 2026) | 146.41 points, up 66.58% year-over-year |
| Brent crude price | Approximately $108/barrel |
| Coal price | Surged 15% in one week (partly El Niño-related) |
| Compound shock status | Materializing – current event |
| Media coverage connecting shocks | Still minimal |
What to Watch For (Updated Timeline)
| Event | Expected Timing | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| NOAA official June update | Early June 2026 | May show further probability increases |
| El Niño emergence | May-July 2026 | Would trigger agricultural production forecast revisions |
| FAO May Food Price Index | Early June 2026 | Will show whether compound inflation continues |
| Strait of Hormuz diplomatic developments | Unknown | Resolution would remove energy shock |
| Iran-US tensions | Ongoing | Warning of “crushing” response if US attacks |
Sources (All Verified May 25, 2026)
- US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) / Climate Prediction Center (CPC) – Official probabilistic El Niño forecast (mid-May 2026) – 82% emergence probability for May-July 2026; 96% persistence probability through winter 2026-27; equatorial subsurface temperature index increased for 6th consecutive month
- NOAA GFDL SPEAR experimental predictions – “High probability of a strong El Niño by fall”
- UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) – Food Price Index (April 2026) – 130.7 points, up 1.6% from March; third consecutive monthly increase; vegetable oil index up 5.9% (highest since July 2022); cereal index up 0.8%; rice index up 1.9%; attribution to “elevated energy costs and disruptions caused by the conflict in the Near East”
- World Bank – Energy Price Index (April 2026) – 146.41 points, up 12.07% from March, up 66.58% year-over-year
- Brent crude futures – Approximately $108/barrel (market data)
- Coal market – 15% weekly surge; partial attribution to El Niño concerns in Indonesia
- LNG tanker tracking (May 25, 2026) – Tanker exited Strait of Hormuz en route to Pakistan
- Iran chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf – Warning of “crushing” response if US resumes attacks; statement that armed forces have “rebuilt themselves during the ceasefire period”
- Pakistan army chief – Talks in Tehran (May 23, 2026) as part of mediation efforts
- Previous article: The Compound Shock: Why a 61% El Niño Threat Combined With the Iran War Could Trigger Global Food and Energy Inflation (The 5 Ws, May 24, 2026) – Baseline information on compound shock mechanism
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